Organizational and Environmental Conditions Associated with AI Adoption Intent: A Sector-Level TOE Analysis

This study examines organizational and environmental conditions associated with artificial intelligence (AI) adoption intent using a sector-level application of the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) Framework and data from the United States Census Bureau Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS). Prior research has identified technological readiness, organizational resources, and external pressures as important drivers of AI adoption; however, much of the literature relies on firm-level perceptual survey data and gives limited attention to objective indicators of environmental turbulence. This study addresses that gap by examining the prevalence of AI adoption intent across sector-size-period groups. Using 1,284 observations, the study constructs composite measures representing organizational capacity and environmental turbulence from workforce, operational, supply-chain, pricing, and financial stress indicators. Multiple regression analysis was used to evaluate relationships among aggregated organizational conditions, environmental pressures, and the percentage of firms reporting AI adoption intent. The findings indicate that industry sector and firm size were the strongest predictors of adoption intent prevalence, with information-intensive and knowledge-oriented sectors demonstrating significantly higher levels of intent. Interest-rate-related financial stress also demonstrated a positive relationship with AI adoption intent prevalence, suggesting that AI may be viewed as a strategic response to operational uncertainty and economic pressure.